Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Technical analysis pre-empts fundamental data

Fundamentalists believe there is a  cause and effect between  fundamental factors and price changes. This means, if the fundamental news is positive the price should rise, and if the news is negative the price should fall. However, long-term analyses of price changes in financial markets around the world show that such a correlation is present only in the  short-term horizon and only to a limited extend. It is non-existent on a medium- and long- term basis.

In fact, the contrary is true. The stock market itself is the best predictor of the future funda- mental trend. Most often, prices start rising in a new bull trend while the economy is still in  recession (position B on chart shown above), i.e. while there is no cause for such an  uptrend. Vice versa, prices start falling in a new bear trend while the economy is still  growing (position A), and not providing fundamental reasons to sell. There is a time-lag of  several months by which the fundamental trend follows the stock market trend. Moreover,
this is not only true for the stock market and the economy but also for the price trends of   individual equities and company earnings. Stock prices peak ahead of peak earnings while bottoming ahead of peak losses.

The purpose of technical analysis is to identify trend changes that precede the fundamen-  tal trend and do not (yet) make sense if compared to the concurrent fundamental trend.