ELLIOTT WAVE

A flat correction differs from a zigzag in that the subwave sequence is 3-3-5, as shown in Figures 1 and 2. Since the first actionary wave,

Fibonacci studies: arcs, fans, retracements, and time

Overview: Leonardo Fibonacci was a mathematician who was born in Italy around the year 1170. It is believed that Mr. Fibonacci discovered..

Indicator

The Negative Volume Index (“NVI”) focuses on days where the volume decreases from the previous day. The premise being that the “smart money” takes positions on days when volume decreases

Basic Technicals

MACD technical analysis MACD technical analysis stands for moving average convergence/divergence analysis of stocks.

Fundamental Analysis

Doubling Stocks Review: Is this a scam? If you are looking for the truth about doubling stocks this is a necessity. One always thought there was something wrong with a doubling of stocks.

Thursday, September 30, 2010

Momentum

Momentum
The Momentum indicator compares where the current price is in relation to where the price was in the past. How far in the past the comparison is made is up to the technical analysis trader. The calculation of Momentum is quite simple (n is the number of periods the technical trader selects):
* The current price minus the price n-periods ago
Hence, if the current price is higher than the price in the past, then the Momentum indicator is positive. In contrast, when the current price is lower than the price in the past, then the Momentum indicator is negative.
An example of the Momentum indicator is shown below in the chart of the E-mini Nasdaq 100 Future:
momentum technical indicator buy and sell signals.

Potential buy or shortsell entries are shown above in the chart.
Momentum Buy Signal
When the Momentum indicator crosses above the zero line. The crossing of the zero line implies that the price of the stock, future, or currency pair is reversing course, either by having bottomed out or by breaking out above recent highs, a bullish signal.
Momentum Sell Signal
Momentum indicator crosses below the zero line. A cross of the zero line can generally mean two things: the future, currency pair, or stock’s price has topped out and is reversing or that the price has broken below recent lows, either way, a bearish signal.
Momentum Exit Signals
Generally speaking the buy and sell signals discussed above are poor exits, either selling out of a long position or buying to cover a short position. By the time the Momentum indicator returns back to the zero line, most or all of the profits have probably eroded, or even worse the trader has let a winning position turn into a losing position.
When the Momentum is reversing course and is heading back towards the zero line, that means profits have been eroded. How much of a retracement back towards the zero line before an exit is triggered is up to the trader. Another alternative is to draw a trendline; when the trendline is broken, that could be the exit signal. Like most technical analysis indicators, interpreting them is part science, part art form.
Buy and sell signals are not the only use of the Momentum indicator. The next page discusses using Momentum to detect divergences, an important trading concept.
Courtesy OnlineTradingConcepts.com. Copyright OnlineTradingConcepts.com 2007-2008

Wednesday, September 29, 2010

WAVE DEGREE

All waves may be categorized by relative size, or degree. Elliott discerned nine degrees of waves, from the smallest wiggle on an hourly chart to the largest wave he could assume existed from the data then available. He chose the names listed below to label these degrees, from largest to smallest:
*Grand Super cycle
*Super cycle
*Cycle
*Primary
*Intermediate
*Minor
*Minute
*Minutemen
*Subminuette
It is important to understand that these labels refer to specifically identifiable degrees of waves. For instance, whenwe refer to the U.S. stock market’s rise from 1932, we speak of it as a Supercycle with subdivisions as follows:
1932-1937 the first wave of Cycle degree
1937-1942 the second wave of Cycle degree
1942-1966 the third wave of Cycle degree
1966-1974 the fourth wave of Cycle degree
1974-19?? the fifth wave of Cycle degree
Cycle waves subdivide into Primary waves that subdivide into Intermediate waves that in turn subdivide into Minor and sub-Minor waves. By using this nomenclature, the analyst can identify precisely the position of a wave in the overall progression of the market, much as longitude and latitude are used to identify a geographical location. To say, “the Dow Jones Industrial Average is in Minute wave v of Minor wave 1 of Intermediate wave (3) of Primary wave [5] of Cycle wave I of Super cycle wave (V) of the current Grand Supercycle” is to identify a specific point along the progression of market history.
When numbering and lettering waves, the scheme shown below is recommended to differentiate the degrees of waves in the stock market’s progression:

The most desirable form for a scientist is usually something like 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, etc., with subscripts denoting degree, but it’s a nightmare to read such notations on a chart. The above table provides for rapid visual orientation. Charts may also use color as an effective device for differentiating degree.
In Elliott’s suggested terminology, the term “Cycle” is used as a name denoting a specific degree of wave and is not intended to imply a cycle in the typical sense. The same is true of the term “Primary,” which in the past has been used loosely by Dow Theorists in phrases such as “primary swing” or “primary bull market.” The specific terminology is not critical to the identification of relative degrees, and the authors have no argument with amending the terms, although out of habit we have become comfortable with Elliott’s nomenclature.
The precise identification of wave degree in “current time” application is occasionally one of the difficult aspects of the Wave Principle. Particularly at the start of a new wave, it can be difficult to decide what degree the initial smaller subdivisions are. The main reason for the difficulty is that wave degree is not based upon specific price or time lengths. Waves are dependent upon form, which is a function of both price and time. The degree of a form is determined by its size and position relative to component, adjacent and encompassing waves.
This relativity is one of the aspects of the Wave Principle that make real time interpretation an intellectual challenge.

Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Types of Oscillator


Oscillator Types
An oscillator is an indicator that fluctuates above and below a centerline or between set levels as its value changes over time. Oscillators can remain at extreme levels (overbought or oversold) for extended periods, but they cannot trend for a sustained period. In contrast, a security or a cumulative indicator like On-Balance-Volume (OBV) can trend as it continually increases or decreases in value over a sustained period of time.
As the indicator comparison chart shows, oscillator movements are more confined and sustained movements (trends) are limited, no matter how long the time period. Over the two year period, Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) fluctuated above and below zero, touching the zero line about 18 times. Also notice that each time MACD surpassed +80 the indicator pulled back. Even though MACD does not have an upper or lower limit on its range of values, its movements appear confined. OBV, on the other hand, began an uptrend in March 2003 and advanced steadily for the next year. Its movements are not confined and long-term trends can develop.
There are many different types of oscillators and some belong to more than one category. The breakdown of oscillator types begins with two types: centered oscillators which fluctuate above and below a center point or line, and banded oscillators which fluctuate between overbought and oversold extremes. Generally, centered oscillators are best suited for analyzing the direction of price momentum, while banded oscillators are best suited for identifying overbought and oversold levels.
Centered Oscillators
Centered oscillators fluctuate above and below a central point or line. These oscillators are good for identifying the strength or weakness, or direction, of momentum behind a security’s move. In its purest form, momentum is positive (bullish) when a centered oscillator is trading above its center line and negative (bearish) when the oscillator is trading below its center line.
MACD is an example of a centered oscillator that fluctuates above and below zero. MACD is the difference between the 12-day EMA and 26-day EMA of a security. The further one moving average moves away from the other, the higher the reading. Even though there is no range limit to MACD, extremely large differences between the two moving averages are unlikely to last for long.
MACD
MACD is unique in that it has lagging elements as well as leading elements. Moving averages are lagging indicators and would be classified as trend-following or lagging elements. However, by taking the differences in the moving averages, MACD incorporates aspects of momentum or leading elements. The difference between the moving averages represents the rate of change. By measuring the rate-of-change, MACD becomes a leading indicator, but still with a bit of lag. With the integration of both moving averages and rate-of-change, MACD has forged a unique spot among oscillators as both a lagging and a leading indicator.
ROC
Rate-of-change (ROC) is a centered oscillator that also fluctuates above and below zero. As its name implies, ROC measures the percentage price change over a given time period. For example: 20 day ROC would measure the percentage price change over the last 20 days. The bigger the difference between the current price and the price 20 days ago, the higher the value of the ROC Oscillator. When the indicator is above 0, the percentage price change is positive (bullish). When the indicator is below 0, the percentage price change is negative (bearish).
As with MACD, ROC is not bound by upper or lower limits. This is typical of most centered oscillators and can make it difficult to spot overbought and oversold conditions. This ROC chart indicates that readings above +20% and below -20% represent extremes and are unlikely to last for an extended period of time. However, the only way to gauge that +20% and -20% are extreme readings is from past observations. Also, +20% and -20% represent extremes for this particular security and may not be the same for other securities. Banded oscillators offer a better alternative to gauge extreme price levels.
Banded Oscillators
Banded oscillators fluctuate above and below two bands that signify extreme price levels. The lower band represents oversold readings and the upper band represents overbought readings. These set bands are based on the oscillator and change little from security to security, allowing the users to easily identify overbought and oversold conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Stochastic Oscillator are two examples of banded oscillators.
Stochastics/RSI

For RSI, the bands for overbought and oversold are usually set at 70 and 30 respectively. A reading greater than 70 would be considered overbought and a reading below 30 would be considered oversold. For the Stochastic Oscillator, a reading above 80 is overbought and a reading below 20 oversold. Even though these are the recommended band settings, certain securities may not adhere to these ranges and might require more fine-tuning. Making adjustments to the bands is usually a judgment call that will reflect a trader’s preferences and the volatility of the security.
Many, but not all, banded oscillators fluctuate within set upper and lower limits. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is range-bound by 0 and 100 and will never go higher than 100 nor lower than zero. The Stochastic Oscillator is another oscillator with a set range and is bound by 100 and 0 as well.
Pros and Cons of Centered and Banded Oscillators
Centered oscillators are best used to identify the underlying strength or direction of momentum behind a move. Broadly speaking, readings above the center point indicate bullish momentum and readings below the center point indicate bearish momentum. The biggest difference between centered oscillators and banded oscillators is the latter’s ability to identify extreme readings. While it is possible to identify extreme readings with centered oscillators, they are not ideal for this purpose. Banded oscillators are best suited to identify overbought and oversold conditions.
Courtesy stockcharts.com.This content copyrights protected by stockcharts.com.

Monday, September 27, 2010

Prices move in trends

Market trends :
Technical analysts believe that prices trend directionally, i.e., up, down, or sideways (flat) or some combination. The basic definition of a price trend was originally put forward by Dow Theory. An example of a security that had an apparent trend is AOL from November 2001 through August 2002. A technical analyst or trend follower recognizing this trend would look for opportunities to sell this security.
AOL consistently moves downward in price. Each time the stock rose, sellers would enter the market and sell the stock; hence the “zig-zag” movement in the price. The series of “lower highs” and “lower lows” is a tell tale sign of a stock in a down trend. In other words, each time the stock moved lower, it fell below its previous relative low price. Each time the stock moved higher, it could not reach the level of its previous relative high price. Note that the sequence of lower lows and lower highs did not begin until August. Then AOL makes a low price that doesn’t pierce the relative low set earlier in the month. Later in the same month, the stock makes a relative high equal to the most recent relative high. In this a technician sees strong indications that the down trend is at least pausing and possibly ending, and would likely stop actively selling the stock at that point. History tends to repeat itself Technical analysts believe that investors collectively repeat the behavior of the investors that preceded them. “Everyone wants in on the next Microsoft,” “If this stock ever gets to $50 again, I will buy it,” “This company’s technology will revolutionize its industry, therefore this stock will skyrocket” – these are all examples of investor sentiment repeating itself. To a technician, the emotions in the market may be irrational, but they exist. Because investor behavior repeats itself so often, technicians believe that recognizable (and predictable) price patterns will develop on a chart. Technical analysis is not limited to charting, but it always considers price trends. For example, many technicians monitor surveys of investor sentiment. These surveys gauge the attitude of market participants, specifically whether they are bearish or bullish. Technicians use these surveys to help determine whether a trend will continue or if a reversal could develop; they are most likely to anticipate a change when the surveys report extreme investor sentiment. Surveys that show overwhelming bullishness, for example, are evidence that an uptrend may reverse – the premise being that if most investors are bullish they have already bought the market (anticipating higher prices). And because most investors are bullish and invested, one assumes that few buyers remain. This leaves more potential sellers than buyers, despite the bullish sentiment. This suggests that prices will trend down, and is an example of contrarian trading. What is Technical Analysis? Technical Analysis is the forecasting of future financial price movements based on an examination of past price movements. Like weather forecasting, technical analysis does not result in absolute predictions about the future. Instead, technical analysis can help investors anticipate what is “likely” to happen to prices over time. Technical analysis uses a wide variety of charts that show price over time. Technical analysis is applicable to stocks, indices, commodities, futures or any trad able instrument where the price is influenced by the forces of supply and demand. Price refers to any combination of the open, high, low, or close for a given security over a specific time frame. The time frame can be based on intraday (1-minute, 5-minutes, 10-minutes, 15-minutes, 30-minutes or hourly), daily, weekly or monthly price data and last a few hours or many years. In addition, some technical analysts include volume or open interest figures with their study of price action. Trend Lines Technical analysis is built on the assumption that prices trend. Trend Lines are an important tool in technical analysis for both trend identification and confirmation. A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points and then extends into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. Many of the principles applicable to support and resistance levels can be applied to trend lines as well. It is important that you understand all of the concepts presented in our Support and Resistance article before you continue
Definition EMC Corp.

(EMC) Trend example Uptrend Line An uptrend line has a positive slope and is formed by connecting two or more low points. The second low must be higher than the first for the line to have a positive slope. Uptrend lines act as support and indicate that net-demand (demand less supply) is increasing even as the price rises. A rising price combined with increasing demand is very bullish, and shows a strong determination on the part of the buyers. As long as prices remain above the trend line, the uptrend is considered solid and intact. A break below the uptrend line indicates that net-demand has weakened and a change in trend could be imminent. Downtrend Line A downtrend line has a negative slope and is formed by connecting two or more high points. The second high must be lower than the first for the line to have a negative slope.
Downtrend lines
act as resistance, and indicate that net-supply (supply less demand) is increasing even as the price declines. A declining price combined with increasing supply is very bearish, and shows the strong resolve of the sellers. As long as prices remain below the downtrend line, the downtrend is solid and intact. A break above the downtrend line indicates that net-supply is decreasing and that a change of trend could be imminent. For a detailed explanation of trend changes, which are different than just trend line breaks, please see our article on the Dow Theory.
Scale
Settings High points and low points appear to line up better for trend lines when prices are displayed using a semi-log scale. This is especially true when long-term trend lines are being drawn or when there is a large change in price. Most charting programs allow users to set the scale as arithmetic or semi-log. An arithmetic scale displays incremental values (5,10,15,20,25,30) evenly as they move up the y-axis. A $10 movement in price will look the same from $10 to $20 or from $100 to $110. A semi-log scale displays incremental values in percentage terms as they move up the y-axis. A move from $10 to $20 is a 100% gain, and would appear to be a much larger than a move from $100 to $110, which is only a 10% gain.
Validation
It takes two or more points to draw a trend line The more points used to draw the trend line, the more validity attached to the support or resistance level represented by the trend line. It can sometimes be difficult to find more than 2 points from which to construct a trend line Even though trend lines are an important aspect of technical analysis, it is not always possible to draw trend lines on every price chart. Sometimes the lows or highs just don’t match up, and it is best not to force the issue. The general rule in technical analysis is that it takes two points to draw a trend line and the third point confirms the validity.
Spacing of Points
The lows used to form an uptrend line and the highs used to form a downtrend line should not be too far apart, or too close together. The most suitable distance apart will depend on the time frame, the degree of price movement, and personal preferences. If the lows (highs) are too close together, the validity of the reaction low (high) may be in question. If the lows are too far apart, the relationship between the two points could be suspect. An ideal trend line is made up of relatively evenly spaced lows (or highs). The trend line in the above MSFT example represents well-spaced low points.
Internal Trend Lines
Sometimes there appears to be the possibility for drawing a trend line, but the exact points do not match up cleanly. The highs or lows might be out of whack, the angle might be too steep or the points might be too close together. If one or two points could be ignored, then a fitted trend line could be formed. With the volatility present in the market, prices can over-react, and produce spikes that distort the highs and lows. One method for dealing with over-reactions is to draw internal trend lines. Even though an internal trend line ignores price spikes, the ignoring should be within reason.
Conclusion
Trend lines can offer great insight, but if used improperly, they can also produce false signals. Other items – such as horizontal support and resistance levels or peak-and-trough analysis – should be employed to validate trend line breaks. While trend lines have become a very popular aspect of technical analysis, they are merely one tool for establishing, analyzing, and confirming a trend. Trend lines should not be the final arbiter, but should serve merely as a warning that a change in trend may be imminent. By using trend line breaks for warnings, investors and traders can pay closer attention to other confirming signals for a potential change in trend.

Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Cup and Saucer

Some analysts call this formation a cup and handle, but the type of trading activity is the same. A market makes a gradual descent, trades at a lower level for a while and then makes a gradual ascent to form a rounding bottom – the saucer or the cup, depending on the name you give this formation. After prices reach the lip on the right side of the saucer (or cup), the market runs into resistance from the lip on the left side and sets back for a short time before moving back up to the lip level, forming the cup (or handle). When prices do pick up enough momentum to break above the lip level, they often do so with rather vigorous market action on higher volume, sometimes leaving a gap at the start of what becomes an extended uptrend.

Courtesy TradingEducation.com.This content copyrights protected by TradingEducation.com.